EVALUATION OF ABLATIVE PROPERTIES IN COMPOSITES THROUGH BAYESIAN INFERENCE

Humberto Araujo Mahado Machado¹; Hélcio Rangel Barreto Orlande Orlande²

¹ Instituto de Aeronáutica e Espaço - IAE; ² Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro

doi:10.20906/CPS/CON-2016-0341

Resumo

Composite materials are commonly used in thermal shields of space and sub-orbital vehicles. In order to achieve the correct dimensioning of such thermal protection systems, the ablative properties of these materials should be known. In this work, techniques for solution of inverse problems are used for determination of these parameters. The Bayesian technique MCMC (Markov Chain-Monte Carlo) through the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is proposed for the solution of the inverse problem in the ablation of a composite. Preliminary results of a simulated problem are presented for an specific case, demonstrating the viability of this way of solution.

Palavras-chave: Inverse problem; Composite ablation; Bayesian inference; Computational simulation