Stability Study of Slopes by Probabilistic Methods
Carlos Nacianceno Meza López1; Nilthson Noreña Valverde1; Celso Romanel1
1 PUC-Rio - Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
doi:10.20906/CPS/CILAMCE2017-0893
Resumo
Slope stability analyzes are usually performed using deterministic methods, which aim to calculate a safety factor (FS) assuming the soil layers as homogeneous and the value of the soil resistance parameters as representative and fixed. These methods do not evaluate the uncertainties in the geotechnical properties (resistance) of the soil, much less indicate the proportion of the influence that each resistance parameter has on the value of the safety factor. On the other hand, probabilistic methods, based on probability, reliability and statistical theories, allow evaluating the influence of these uncertainties on the deterministic calculations, with the possibility of estimating the risk of failure associated to a geotechnical slope stability project. In the present work, the application of three probabilistic methods as: Monte Carlo, Latin HyperCube and Alternate Point Estimation for the evaluation of slope stability, with the aid of limit equilibrium methods in the calculation of the safety factor, is studied. In order to infer about factors that influence the estimates of probability and reliability, the importance of adequate quantification of the standard deviation is studied. Comparisons of the results obtained with each probabilistic method are discussed as well as the main advantages of applying these methods. Slope stability analyzes are conducted through the SVSlope computational program, as a tool for slope stability analysis using the boundary equilibrium method and probabilistic analysis.
Palavras-chave: Probabilistic Method; Failure Probability; Sampling; Reliability; Standard Deviation