Analysis of spatiotemporal patterns of reported cases of AIDS and tuberculosis in the city of São Paulo by administrative districts, using bayesian disease mapping
Elisangela Aparecida da Silva Lizzi Lizzi1; Edson Zangiacomi Martinez Martinez2; Antonio Ruffino Neto RUFFINO-NETO2; Jonathan Golub Golub3
1 Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná; 2 Universidade de São Paulo; 3 John Hopkins University
Resumo
Investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) incidents cases of between the years 2006 to 2012 in São Paulo city, SP, according to its 96 Administrative Districts, as well as their associations with the characteristics of income. This is an ecological study, and the tools used to incidence rates estimation and analysis of data is Bayesian regression models that incorporate spatial and temporal effects. These models include random effects with a CAR distribution (conditional autoregressive) bivariate normal that capture the influence of adjacent fields on the number of cases reported in each region, according to sex. Estimates of the model parameters were obtained by stochastic simulation method MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain). The spatiotemporal pattern shows the reverse pattern of the Income association with TB, and AIDS with TB in space in relation to incident cases in men. The results are useful to support the policy planning and health actions directed to the AIDS and TB in areas and at-risk populations in São Paulo.
Palavras-chave: epidemiology and mathematical models; models, sthocastic models; time series analysis; spatial statistics, bayesian disease mapping