Assessment of the uncertainties on the modeling of landfill emissions
Andrés Felipe Loaiza PATIÑO1; Luciano da Silva BERCHON1; André Luis Ribeiro THOMAZONI2; Paulo Smith Schneider1; Mário Saffer3
1 UFRGS; 2 APS Engenharia; 3 Engebio
doi:10.20906/CPS/COB-2015-2687
Resumo
This paper deals with the propagation of uncertainties and the sensibility of quantities that appear on models for landfill biogas generation. The model is applied to real from in municipal solid waste facility that used to attend over 300,000 inhabitants. A first order model is selected to estimate conservative and optimistic scenarios. A sensibility study is performed in order to identify the major parameters, that are then used to estimate the biogás generation via a first order model. The uncertainties of the main parameters are combined to obtain the average biogas volumetric output generated per year. The conservative scenario considers the combined uncertainty underestimating the average biogas volumetric output, while the optimistic one overestimates the generated biogas. The model will be feed with values of uncertainties proposed by IPCC 2006 in order to calculate the maximum and the minimum biogas volumetric output per year.
Palavras-chave: Landfill gas to energy; municipal solid waste; landfill energetic modeling