MODELING OF THE DYNAMICS MANGROVE FRONT TO SEA-LEVEL RISE ON THE BRAZILIAN COAST
Adriam Freitas Ribeiro1; Luís Jorge Mesquita de Jesus1; Andre Luis Silva2; Denilson da Silva Bezerra1
1 Universidade CEUMA; 2 Instituto Federal do Maranhão
doi:10.20906/CPS/CILAMCE2017-0557
Resumo
In the present study is propose a methodological approach to simulate the resistance pattern of the mangrove to sea-level rise, using spatially explicit modeling based on cellular automata; the proposed model is called the BR-MANGROVE. The simulation considers 88 events of elevation from 0.011 to 0.97 m according an arithmetic progression of reason 0.011 m for the time interval from 2012 to 2100. The case study area is the Maranhão Island - Brazil, which contains extensive mangrove area, and is densely occupied. The results presented demonstrated that mangrove had 13 resistance patterns, where the first was characterized by an elevation range from 0.01 to 0.13 m for the period 2013-2024. In this interval, the mangrove area remained approximately constant, with values of the order of 17,711 ha for the total area, and 16,916 ha of remaining area, which corresponds to 4.49% (795 ha) of expansion. After the first resistance pattern, mangrove showed 12 subsequent patterns of resistance and decline of area until the finish of the simulation. The results obtained through the BR-MANGROVE suggest that modeling experiments can be used to promote a better understanding of patterns of the mangrove responses to potential events of sea-level rise, especially in areas of complex use.
Palavras-chave: Sea-level rise; Mangrove; Modelling; Cellular Automata; Coastal Zone