Economic analysis of the installation of photovoltaic generation system at UNIFEI with reliability: A Monte Carlo approach

Iberê Carneiro de Oliveira¹; Victor Eduardo de Mello Valerio¹; Benedito Donizeti Bonatto¹; José Luiz Rezende Pereira²

¹ UNIFEI; ² UFJF

Resumo

This work aims to economically analyze in a stochastic way the financial return of the implantation of a photovoltaic generation system in the campus of Itajubá of UNIFEI. For this, a system was designed to clear the energy portion of the tariff charged by CEMIG, and it was also identified the main risk factors that influence the economic return of the PV system as well as its probability distribution. Thus, it was calculated the NPV, IRR and IR as well as their standard deviation to evaluate the risk of this investment.

Palavras-chave: Photovoltaic Systems; Economic Analysis; Distributed Generation; Smart Grid; Monte Carlo Simulation; Risk; reliability